I. J. Good on 1965

This AI Prediction was made by I. J. Good in 1965.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make, since it will lead to an “intelligence explosion.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from I. J. Good:

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an “intelligence explosion,” and the intelligence of man would be left far behind


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

1. An ultraintelligent machine is defined as one that can surpass all intellectual activities of any human.2. Such a machine could design even better machines, leading to an “intelligence explosion” and leaving human intelligence far behind.3. This would result in a rapid increase in machine intelligence, far surpassing that of humans.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

1. The future of humanity is dependent on the creation of an ultra-intelligent machine.2. This machine must be created in order to ensure the survival of mankind.3. The development of such a machine is essential for the future of humanity.




I. J. Good was a British mathematician and cryptologist who worked as a codebreaker at Bletchley Park during World War II. He is best known for his pioneering work on the Enigma machine and for his contributions to the development of the Colossus computer. Good was born in 1916 and studied mathematics at Cambridge University. He was recruited to work at Bletchley Park in 1940 and quickly rose to become one of the most important codebreakers at the facility. He was instrumental in the development of the Bombe machine, which was used to decipher German Enigma codes. He also worked on the development of the Colossus computer, which was the world’s first programmable digital computer. After the war, Good continued to work in the field of cryptography, and he wrote several books on the subject. He was awarded an OBE in 1976 for his services to cryptography. He died in 2009, having been awarded numerous honors for his work in the field of cryptography.




Keywords: ultraintelligent machine, intelligence explosion, intelligence of man