Hugo de Garis on 2005

This AI Prediction was made by Hugo de Garis in 2005.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

If I have also persuaded you that these artilects will be buildable before the beginning of the 22nd century, then this chapter has been successful. […] I doubt they will reach human intelligence levels within 50 years, but who knows.

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Hugo de Garis:

My opinion is that the human brain is so complex that it will take a good 10 years, and probably a lot longer, of “climbing time” for the brain builders to construct artilects of human level intelligence, once they have constructed the first “interestingly” intelligent artilects.

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The construction of artilects of human level intelligence is a complex process that will take a significant amount of time. It is estimated that it will take at least 10 years of “climbing time” to reach this goal. Once the first “interestingly” intelligent artilects are constructed, the process of creating artilects of human level intelligence can begin.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I am not optimistic about the future survival of humanity when faced with machines that become ever smarter at exponential rates. My ultimate goal is to see humanity, or at least of portion of humanity, go Cosmist and to do it successfully by building truly godlike artilects that tower above our puny human intellectual, and other, abilities.

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Humans are not likely to survive when faced with smarter machines. The ultimate goal is to see humanity, or a portion of it, become Cosmist. This would involve building artilects that are far superior to human abilities.

About:

Hugo de Garis is a retired researcher in the field of artificial intelligence, artificial brain research, and artificial general intelligence. He is particularly known for his controversial ideas about the potential dangers of creating superintelligent machines, which he has termed “Artilects”. De Garis has authored several books and papers on these topics.