Herbert Alexander Simon on 1965

This AI Prediction was made by Herbert Alexander Simon in 1965.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work that a man can do



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Herbert Alexander Simon:


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:




The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:





Herbert Alexander Simon (1916-2001) was an American political scientist and economist who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1978. He was a professor of political science and computer science at Carnegie Mellon University and a professor of psychology at the University of Chicago.Simon was one of the most influential social scientists of the twentieth century. He is best known for his pioneering work in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, decision making, organizational behavior, and public administration. He was a major contributor to the development of the field of artificial intelligence, and his work on decision making and problem solving laid the foundation for the field of cognitive science. He was also a major figure in the development of the field of public administration, and his work on organizational behavior and decision making helped shape the field of management science. His work on the concept of bounded rationality, which focused on how people make decisions in the face of limited information, had a major impact on the field of economics.