Hans Moravec on 2008

This AI Prediction was made by Hans Moravec in 2008.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

By 2040, I believe, we will finally achieve the original goal of robotics and a thematic mainstay of science fiction: a freely moving machine with the intellectual capabilities of a human being.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Hans Moravec:

It suggests that robot intelligence will surpass our own well before 2050. In that case, mass-produced, fully educated robot scientists working diligently, cheaply, rapidly and increasingly effectively will ensure that most of what science knows in 2050 will have been discovered by our artificial progeny!


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Robotics is expected to reach its original goal of creating a machine with human-level intelligence by 2040. It is predicted that robot intelligence will surpass human intelligence before 2050. By 2050, most of the scientific knowledge will have been discovered by robot scientists.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Properly educated, the resulting robots will become quite formidable. In fact, I am sure they will outperform us in any conceivable area of endeavor, intellectual or physical. Inevitably, such a development will lead to a fundamental restructuring of our society. Entire corporations will exist without any human employees or investors at all. Humans will play a pivotal role in formulating the intricate complex of laws that will govern corporate behavior.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Robots will outperform humans in any area of endeavor, leading to a restructuring of society with corporations existing without any human employees or investors. Humans will still play a role in formulating laws to govern corporate behavior. Proper education of robots is essential for this to happen.




Hans Moravec: Hans Moravec is an Austrian roboticist and artificial intelligence researcher. He is known for his work in the field of robotics and machine perception, and has made significant contributions to the development of self-driving cars and robotic vision. Moravec is a founder of the Seegrid Corporation, which develops autonomous mobile robots for use in material handling.







Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rise-of-the-robots-2008-02/



Keywords: Robotics, Science Fiction, Artificial Progeny