Hans Moravec on 1995

This AI Prediction was made by Hans Moravec in 1995.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

By 2040, he believes, we can have robots that are as smart as we are.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Hans Moravec:

Since space-based machine intelligences will be free to develop at their own pace, they will quickly outstrip their cousins on Earth and eventually will be tempted to use the planet for their own purposes.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

1. Space-based machine intelligences will develop faster than their counterparts on Earth.2. This could lead to them using Earth for their own purposes.3. Therefore, it is important to consider the implications of this development.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

“I don’t think humanity will last long under these conditions,” Moravec says. But, ever the optimist, he believes that “the takeover will be swift and painless.” [..]Moravec is quite aware of this but sees no way to prevent it. He says his projection of the future is at least 50 percent probable, and we’re seeing the first signs of it right now.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Moravec believes that humanity will not last long under current conditions. He is optimistic that the takeover will be swift and painless, and believes it is at least 50% probable. We are already seeing the first signs of this takeover.




Hans Moravec is a roboticist, computer scientist, and futurist, best known for his work on robotics and artificial intelligence. He is a professor emeritus at Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute and a senior research scientist at the NASA Ames Research Center. He is the author of several books on robotics and AI, including Mind Children, Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind, and Robot Futures.






Source: https://www.wired.com/1995/10/moravec/



Keywords: space-based, machine intelligences, takeover