Gwern Branwen on 2014

This AI Prediction was made by Gwern Branwen in 2014.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Not provided



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Gwern Branwen:

I don’t find fast takeoffs all that plausible


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The article presents a parable about two groups of people, the Elites and the Takeoffers, who have different approaches to progress and innovation. The Elites believe in slow and steady progress, while the Takeoffers believe in rapid and exponential progress. The parable highlights the potential risks and benefits of both approaches and encourages readers to consider which approach they believe is more effective.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




Gwern Branwen was a legendary figure in Welsh mythology, known for his bravery and wisdom. He was said to be the son of Llyr and the brother of Bran the Blessed, both of whom were also revered in Welsh folklore.According to legend, Gwern Branwen played a pivotal role in the Battle of the Trees, a mythical conflict between the forces of light and darkness. He was said to have used his knowledge of magic and his skill with a sword to help defeat the enemy and secure victory for his people.In addition to his prowess in battle, Gwern Branwen was also known for his wisdom and his ability to solve complex problems. He was said to have been a trusted advisor to his brother Bran, and his counsel was sought by many other leaders and rulers throughout Wales.Despite his many accomplishments, Gwern Branwen remains a somewhat enigmatic figure in Welsh mythology. Some legends suggest that he was ultimately betrayed and killed by his own people, while others portray him as a wise and benevolent ruler who brought peace and prosperity to his land.Regardless of the details of his life and death, Gwern Branwen remains an important figure in Welsh folklore, and his legacy continues to inspire and captivate people to this day.









Keywords: fast takeoffs, plausible