This AI Prediction was made by George Dvorsky in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from George Dvorsky:
As noted earlier, a recursively improving AI could increase its intelligence extremely quickly. Or, it’s a process that could take time for various reasons, such as technological complexity or limited access to resources. It’s an open question as to whether or not we can expect a fast or slow take-off event.
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The speed at which an AI could increase its intelligence through recursive improvement is uncertain. Factors such as technological complexity and limited resources could slow down the process. It remains unclear whether the take-off event will be fast or slow.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
And in fact, while many people fear a so-called “robot apocalypse” aimed directly at extinguishing our civilization, I personally feel that the real danger to our ongoing existence lies in the potential for us to be collateral damage as advanced AGIs battle it out for supremacy; we may find ourselves in the line of fire. Indeed, building a safe AI will be a monumental — if not intractable — task.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The real danger to our existence from advanced AGIs is the potential for us to be collateral damage as they battle for supremacy. The fear of a “robot apocalypse” is not as concerning as being caught in the line of fire. Building a safe AI is a monumental and challenging task.
Extended Bio of George DvorskyGeorge Dvorsky is a renowned Canadian futurist, bioethicist, and science writer. He was born on August 10, 1970, in Toronto, Canada. Dvorsky has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Philosophy from the University of Toronto and a Master of Arts degree in Philosophy from York University.Dvorsky is best known for his work in the field of transhumanism, which explores the potential of technology to enhance human capabilities and extend human life. He has written extensively on the subject, including articles for publications such as Wired, Gizmodo, and io9. He is also a frequent speaker at conferences and events related to transhumanism and emerging technologies.In addition to his work in transhumanism, Dvorsky is also a bioethicist, focusing on the ethical implications of emerging technologies such as genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology. He has written on these topics for publications such as The Huffington Post and The Guardian.Dvorsky is a Fellow of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the ethical and social implications of emerging technologies. He is also a member of the World Future Society and the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.In his spare time, Dvorsky enjoys hiking, photography, and playing guitar. He currently resides in Toronto with his wife and two children.
Keywords: AI, intelligence, safety