Geoffrey Hinton on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Geoffrey Hinton in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

“No sooner than 2070,” he said. “I am in the camp that is hopeless.”



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Geoffrey Hinton:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The speaker believes that a certain event will not happen until at least 2070. He expresses a sense of hopelessness about the situation. No further details are given about what the event is.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

“I could give you the usual arguments,” Hinton said. “But the truth is that the prospect of discovery is too sweet.” […]It can happen with a baby and a mother—there is biological hardwiring—but there is not a good track record of less intelligent things controlling things of greater intelligence


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Hinton admits that he could provide typical arguments, but the allure of discovery is too strong. While there may be biological hardwiring between a mother and child, there is a history of less intelligent entities not controlling more intelligent ones.




Geoffrey Hinton is a renowned computer scientist and artificial intelligence expert. Born on December 6, 1947, in London, England, Hinton has made significant contributions to the field of machine learning and neural networks.Hinton received his Bachelor’s degree in Experimental Psychology from the University of Edinburgh in 1970. He then went on to earn his PhD in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Edinburgh in 1978. After completing his studies, Hinton worked as a professor at the University of Sussex and later at Carnegie Mellon University.In the 1980s, Hinton began to focus on neural networks and deep learning, which were relatively new concepts at the time. He developed the backpropagation algorithm, which is now widely used in machine learning. Hinton’s work on neural networks and deep learning has had a significant impact on the field of artificial intelligence and has led to breakthroughs in speech recognition, image recognition, and natural language processing.Hinton has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to the field of artificial intelligence. In 2018, he was awarded the Turing Award, which is considered the highest honor in computer science. He has also been awarded the IEEE Neural Network Pioneer Award, the Royal Society of London’s Royal Medal, and the Order of Canada.Today, Hinton continues to work in the field of artificial intelligence as a professor at the University of Toronto and a researcher at Google Brain. His research focuses on developing new algorithms and models for deep learning and neural networks. Hinton’s work has paved the way for the development of intelligent machines that can learn and adapt to new situations, and his contributions to the field of artificial intelligence will continue to shape the future of technology.









Keywords: 2070, discovery, intelligence