Gary Klein on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Gary Klein in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Gary Klein:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

It is possible to imagine a distant future in which humans have forgotten how to be trustworthy, forgotten to want to be trustworthy. If AI systems become trustworthy and we don’t, perhaps the domination by AI systems may be a good outcome after all.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

In the future, humans may forget how to be trustworthy. If AI systems become trustworthy and humans do not, it may be beneficial for AI to dominate.




Gary Klein is a renowned psychologist and author who has made significant contributions to the field of decision-making and expertise. He was born in Los Angeles, California, in 1944 and received his Ph.D. in experimental psychology from the University of Pittsburgh in 1969.Throughout his career, Klein has conducted extensive research on how people make decisions in complex and uncertain situations. He has developed several influential theories, including the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, which suggests that experts make decisions based on patterns and cues they have learned through experience.Klein has also worked with various organizations, including the U.S. military, to improve decision-making processes and training programs. He has authored or co-authored over 20 books, including “Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions” and “Seeing What Others Don’t: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights.”In addition to his research and writing, Klein has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to psychology and decision-making. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association and the Association for Psychological Science, and he has been recognized with the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the Society of Experimental Psychology and the Outstanding Civilian Service Medal from the U.S. Army.Today, Klein continues to teach and conduct research as a senior scientist at MacroCognition LLC, a research and consulting firm he co-founded. His work has had a significant impact on the field of decision-making and has helped individuals and organizations make better, more informed choices.