Frank Wilczek on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Frank Wilczek in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Frank Wilczek:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Incentives driving powerful AI might go wrong in many ways, but that route seems to me the most plausible, not least because militaries wield vast resources, invest heavily in AI research, and feel compelled to compete with one another


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The author believes that the incentives driving powerful AI could go wrong in many ways, with military competition being the most plausible. This is due to the vast resources and heavy investment in AI research by militaries. As a result, they feel compelled to compete with each other.




Frank Wilczek is a renowned American physicist who has made significant contributions to the field of theoretical physics. Born on May 15, 1951, in Mineola, New York, Wilczek developed an early interest in science and mathematics. He went on to earn his Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Chicago in 1970, followed by a Ph.D. in Physics from Princeton University in 1974.Wilczek’s research has focused on a wide range of topics, including particle physics, cosmology, and condensed matter physics. He is best known for his work on the strong nuclear force, which holds atomic nuclei together. In 2004, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics, along with David Gross and H. David Politzer, for their discovery of asymptotic freedom in the theory of the strong interaction.Throughout his career, Wilczek has held numerous academic positions, including professorships at Princeton University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Stockholm University. He has also authored several books, including “The Lightness of Being: Mass, Ether, and the Unification of Forces” and “A Beautiful Question: Finding Nature’s Deep Design.”In addition to his scientific contributions, Wilczek is also a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. He has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including the Dirac Medal and the Lorentz Medal.Wilczek continues to be an active researcher and advocate for science education. He currently holds the Herman Feshbach Professorship of Physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is a regular contributor to popular science publications such as Scientific American and Nature.









Keywords: Incentives, AI research, militaries