This AI Prediction was made by Francis Heylighen in 2012.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Francis Heylighen:
In conclusion, there are plenty of arguments that make it very implausible that an AI system residing in a closed, virtual world could ever develop a superhuman (AI ) level of intelligence
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
It is unlikely that an AI system in a closed virtual world could develop superhuman intelligence. There are several arguments that support this claim. Therefore, it is implausible for such a system to achieve AI level intelligence.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
In the longer term, as hardware abilities expand, the need for individual humans may diminish, but this is unlikely to follow a simple “takeover by the robots” scenario.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
As technology advances, the role of humans may decrease, but it won’t be a straightforward takeover by robots. The expansion of hardware abilities will play a significant role in this shift. However, the exact nature of this change is uncertain.
Francis Heylighen is a Belgian cyberneticist and systems theorist, born on March 27, 1960. He obtained his PhD in mathematical physics from the Free University of Brussels in 1987.
He is currently a research professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and a member of the Evolution, Complexity and Cognition (ECCO) research group.
Heylighen’s research interests are focused on the study of complex systems, particularly in the fields of cybernetics, artificial intelligence, and cognitive science. He has published numerous articles and books on these topics, including “The Global Brain: Your Roadmap for Innovating Faster and Smarter in a Networked World” and “Cybernetics and Second-Order Cybernetics.”
Heylighen is also the founder and director of the Global Brain Institute (GBI), a multidisciplinary research center that aims to understand the emergence of global intelligence and its impact on society.
He has been a visiting professor at several universities around the world, including the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Tokyo.
In addition to his academic work, Heylighen is also a member of the Club of Rome, a global think tank that focuses on issues related to sustainability and the future of humanity.
He has been recognized for his contributions to the field of cybernetics and systems theory, receiving the Wiener Medal in 2019, which is awarded by the American Society for Cybernetics for outstanding contributions to the field.