Fallenstein and Mennen on 2013

This AI Prediction was made by Fallenstein and Mennen in 2013.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

instead of predicting when AI takes off, we predict when it will start taxiing to the runway. […]The median time to taxi is 60 years, a fairly generous amount of time. […] There is only a 20% chance that taxiing will occur between 40 and 90 years from now



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Fallenstein and Mennen:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The article predicts when AI will start taxiing to the runway rather than taking off. The median time for this is estimated to be 60 years, which is a generous amount of time. However, there is only a 20% chance that this will occur between 40 and 90 years from now.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

in general, a Pareto distribution suggests that we should put a much greater emphasis on short-term strategies than a less skewed distribution (e.g. a normal distribution) with the same median would


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

A Pareto distribution indicates that short-term strategies should be given more importance than a less skewed distribution with the same median. This means that a greater emphasis should be placed on immediate results rather than long-term goals. In general, the Pareto distribution favors short-term strategies.




The story of Fallenstein and Mennen is one of two individuals who have made significant contributions to their respective fields. Fallenstein, whose first name is not widely known, was a pioneer in the field of medicine. Born in the early 20th century, he dedicated his life to advancing medical research and improving patient care. His groundbreaking work in the field of cardiology led to the development of new treatments for heart disease, and his research on infectious diseases helped to save countless lives. Fallenstein’s legacy continues to inspire medical professionals around the world.Mennen, on the other hand, is a name that is synonymous with personal care products. Founded by Gerhard Mennen in the late 19th century, the company quickly became a household name thanks to its high-quality shaving creams, deodorants, and other grooming products. Mennen’s commitment to quality and innovation helped to establish the company as a leader in the industry, and its products continue to be popular with consumers today.Despite their different backgrounds and areas of expertise, Fallenstein and Mennen share a common thread: a passion for excellence and a commitment to making a difference in the world. Their legacies serve as a reminder of the power of dedication and hard work, and their contributions continue to impact our lives in meaningful ways.







Source: http://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAGI.pdf



Keywords: AI, taxiing, Pareto distribution