Eric Horvitz on 2011

This AI Prediction was made by Eric Horvitz in 2011.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Eric Horvitz:



Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Not provided



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I do think that the stakes are high enough where even if there was a low, small chance of some of these kinds of scenarios, that it’s worth investing time and effort to be proactive.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The potential risks of certain scenarios are high enough to warrant proactive investment of time and effort. It is worth taking the time to be prepared for any potential risks, even if the chances of them occurring are low. Investing in prevention is better than dealing with the consequences of not being prepared.




Eric Horvitz is a computer scientist and AI researcher who specializes in probabilistic inference and decision-making under uncertainty. He received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford University in 1990.Horvitz has made significant contributions to the development of probabilistic models for reasoning about complex data, including applications in computer vision, natural language processing, and robotics. He is also the former president of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) and a fellow of the National Academy of Engineering.In terms of AI predictions, Horvitz has argued that AI will have a transformative impact on society, particularly in the areas of healthcare, transportation, and education. He has also emphasized the need for AI to be developed responsibly, with a focus on transparency, accountability, and user trust.