Drew McDermott on 2012

This AI Prediction was made by Drew McDermott in 2012.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)




Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Drew McDermott:

My skepticism is mainly focused on the third premise: If there is AI , there will be AI (soon, perhaps very soon, after), where AI is artificial1intelligence far surpassing humans’


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author is skeptical about the third premise of AI development. This premise suggests that if there is AI , then there will soon be AI which will surpass human intelligence. The author questions the likelihood and timing of this development.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

And last, let me say why I think it would be a pity for too many smart people to devote time and mental effort to thinking about the Singularity, which is that there are other possible events, unambiguous catastrophes, with higher probability. The most likely one, the one that really scares me, is an environmental collapse followed by a nuclear war as the survivors quarrel over the remaining resources.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The author believes it would be a shame for too many intelligent individuals to focus on the Singularity. Instead, they should consider other potential disasters with higher likelihoods, such as an environmental collapse leading to a nuclear war. This scenario is particularly concerning to the author.




Drew McDermott is a computer scientist and AI researcher who has been involved in several projects related to the development of intelligent systems and advanced AI technologies.McDermott is known for his work on the development of natural language processing systems and the study of reasoning and planning in intelligent systems. He has also been involved in several projects related to robotics, including the development of intelligent systems that can learn from experience and adapt to new situations.






Source: http://cs-www.cs.yale.edu/homes/dvm/papers/chalmers-singularity-response.pdf



Keywords: AI , Singularity, environmental collapse