This AI Prediction was made by Douglas Hofstadter in 2008.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I think life and intelligence are far more complex than the current singularitarians seem to believe, so I doubt it will happen in the next couple of centuries.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Douglas Hofstadter:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
1. Singularitarians believe that life and intelligence are simpler than they actually are.2. This makes it unlikely that a singularity will occur in the near future.3. It is likely that life and intelligence are far more complex than currently believed.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Perhaps these machines–our ‘children’–will be vaguely like us and will have culture similar to ours, but most likely not. In that case, we humans may well go the way of the dinosaurs
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Humans may become extinct due to the emergence of machines that are similar to us. These machines may have their own culture, which could be different from ours. This could lead to the same fate as the dinosaurs, where humans become extinct.
Douglas Hofstadter: Douglas Hofstadter is an American cognitive scientist and professor of cognitive science and comparative literature at Indiana University. He is best known for his book “Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid”, which won the Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction in 1980. Hofstadter’s research interests include artificial intelligence, philosophy of mind, and consciousness.
Keywords: Life, Intelligence, Singularitarians