Donald D. Hoffman on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Donald D. Hoffman in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Donald D. Hoffman:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

All species go extinct. Homo sapiens will be no exception. We don’t know how it will happen—virus, an alien invasion, nuclear war, a super volcano, a large meteor, a red-giant sun. Yes, it could be AIs, but I would bet long odds against it. I would bet, instead, that AIs will be a source of awe, insight, inspiration, and yes, profit, for years to come.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

All species, including Homo sapiens, will eventually go extinct. The cause of our extinction is unknown, but it could be a variety of natural or man-made disasters. Despite concerns about artificial intelligence, it is more likely that AIs will be a positive influence on society.




Donald D. Hoffman is a renowned cognitive scientist and philosopher, known for his groundbreaking research on perception, consciousness, and the nature of reality. Born in 1955 in New York City, Hoffman received his Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1978, and his Ph.D. in Cognitive Psychology from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) in 1983.Hoffman’s research has challenged traditional views of perception and consciousness, arguing that our perceptions are not direct representations of the external world, but rather are constructed by the brain to serve our survival needs. He has proposed a theory of conscious agents, which suggests that consciousness is not a property of individual neurons or brain regions, but rather emerges from the interactions of multiple agents that represent different aspects of the environment.Hoffman has published numerous articles and books on these topics, including “Visual Intelligence: How We Create What We See” (1998), “The Case Against Reality: Why Evolution Hid the Truth from Our Eyes” (2019), and “The Interface Theory of Perception” (2020). He has also given numerous talks and lectures on his research, and has been featured in popular media outlets such as TED and Scientific American.In addition to his research, Hoffman has also been involved in various academic and professional organizations. He is a Fellow of the Association for Psychological Science and the American Psychological Association, and has served as President of the Society for Philosophy and Psychology. He has also been a visiting professor at various universities, including MIT, Harvard, and the University of Oxford.Overall, Hoffman’s work has had a significant impact on our understanding of perception, consciousness, and the nature of reality. His innovative ideas and theories continue to inspire and challenge researchers in these fields, and his contributions have earned him widespread recognition and acclaim.