Dirk Helbing on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Dirk Helbing in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Not provided



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Dirk Helbing:

The explosive increase in processing power and data, fueled by powerful machine learning algorithms, finally empowers silicium-based intelligence to overtake carbon-based intelligence. Intelligent machines don’t need to be programmed anymore, they can learn and evolve by themselves, at a speed much faster than human intelligence progresses.


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Advancements in processing power and data, along with machine learning algorithms, have enabled silicon-based intelligence to surpass carbon-based intelligence. Intelligent machines can now learn and evolve on their own, without the need for programming, at a much faster rate than human intelligence.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

It’s tremendously important to figure out, how to organize our information systems to get there. If we manage this, then, humans will enter the history book as the first species that figured it out. Otherwise, do we really deserve to be remembered?


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Organizing our information systems is crucial for human achievement. If we succeed, we will be the first species to do so and be remembered in history. Failure to do so may result in being forgotten.




Dirk Helbing is a renowned Swiss physicist and sociologist, known for his groundbreaking research in the fields of complex systems, social dynamics, and traffic science. Born in 1965 in Germany, Helbing studied physics at the University of Stuttgart and earned his PhD in 1990 from the Technical University of Munich. He then worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, before joining the faculty of the Dresden University of Technology in 1992.In 2000, Helbing became a full professor of sociology at the University of Erfurt, where he founded the Center for Complex Systems and Social Studies. He has also held visiting professorships at several prestigious institutions, including ETH Zurich, Harvard University, and the Santa Fe Institute. In addition to his academic work, Helbing has been involved in numerous interdisciplinary projects and initiatives, such as the FuturICT project, which aims to develop a global-scale simulation platform for studying societal challenges.Helbing’s research has had a significant impact on a wide range of fields, from transportation planning to crowd management to financial markets. He has authored or co-authored over 500 scientific publications, including several highly cited papers on the dynamics of pedestrian crowds and the emergence of social norms. He has also received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to science, including the Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Prize, Germany’s most prestigious research award.Beyond his academic achievements, Helbing is also a passionate advocate for science communication and public engagement. He has written several popular science books, including “Thinking Ahead – Essays on Big Data, Digital Revolution, and Participatory Market Society” and “The Automation of Society is Next: How to Survive the Digital Revolution”. He is also a frequent speaker at conferences and events around the world, where he shares his insights on the challenges and opportunities of our rapidly changing world.






Source: https://www.edge.org/responses/q2015