David McAllester on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by David McAllester in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

“I am uncomfortable saying that we are ninety-­nine per cent certain that we are safe for fifty years,” he told me.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from David McAllester:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The speaker expressed discomfort in stating that they are 99% certain of their safety for the next 50 years. The reason for this discomfort is not specified. The statement is brief and lacks context.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




David McAllester is a renowned computer scientist and researcher who has made significant contributions to the field of artificial intelligence. He received his Ph.D. in computer science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1987, where he worked on natural language processing and machine learning.After completing his Ph.D., McAllester joined the faculty at the University of Rochester, where he continued his research in machine learning and natural language processing. He later moved to the Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago, where he served as a research professor and worked on developing algorithms for machine learning and data analysis.McAllester has also worked at several other prestigious institutions, including the Max Planck Institute for Computer Science in Germany and the Toyota Technological Institute in Japan. He has published numerous papers on machine learning, natural language processing, and artificial intelligence, and has received several awards for his contributions to the field.In addition to his research, McAllester has also been involved in the development of several software systems, including the natural language processing system, Link Grammar. He has also served on the editorial boards of several leading computer science journals and has been a program committee member for numerous conferences.Overall, David McAllester is a highly respected figure in the field of artificial intelligence, and his work has had a significant impact on the development of machine learning and natural language processing.






Source: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom