David L. Waltz on 1988

This AI Prediction was made by David L. Waltz in 1988.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

the time at which we might expect to build a computer with the potential to match human intelligence would be around the year 2017.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from David L. Waltz:

it can still take as much time as it takes a person twenty years to attain the mental competence of an adult level


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Attaining the mental competence of an adult level can take a long time, up to twenty years. This is a significant amount of time for a person to reach this level of maturity. It is important to remember that this process takes time and cannot be rushed.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

I believe that the construction of truly intelligent machines is sufficiently likely to justify beginning study and policy planning now. In that way we can maximize their benefits and minimize their negative effects on society.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

1. It is likely that intelligent machines will be constructed in the future, so it is important to begin studying and planning for them now.2. This will help to maximize the benefits of these machines and minimize their negative effects.3. Planning for intelligent machines now is essential for a successful future.




David L. Waltz is an American computer scientist and artificial intelligence researcher. He is best known for his pioneering work in machine learning, particularly in the field of inductive logic programming. He is a professor emeritus at Columbia University and a Fellow of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. He is the author of several influential books and papers on artificial intelligence, including “An Overview of the Field of Machine Learning” and “Inductive Logic Programming: Theory and Methods.”






Source: www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/20025144?sid=21105674354083&uid=4&uid=2



Keywords: intelligence, machines, society