This AI Prediction was made by David Deutsch in 2011.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
In 1993 the mathematician Vernor Vinge wrote an influential essay entitled ‘The Coming Technological Singularity’, in which he estimated that, within about thirty years […]. I certainly hope that AI is achieved by then, but I see no sign yet of the theoretical progress that I have argued must come first
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from David Deutsch:
Since humans are already universal explainers and constructors, they can already transcend their parochial origins, so there can be no such thing as a superhuman mind as such
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Vernor Vinge wrote an influential essay in 1993 predicting that AI would be achieved within 30 years. He argued that humans are already universal explainers and constructors, so there can be no such thing as a superhuman mind. There is no sign yet of the theoretical progress that is necessary for AI to be achieved.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
It is inevitable that we face problems, but no particular problem is inevitable. We survive, and thrive, by solving each problem as it comes up. And, since the human ability to transform nature is limited only by the laws of physics, none of the endless stream of problems will ever constitute an impassable barrier
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Problems are inevitable, but we can overcome them by solving them as they arise. Our ability to transform nature is limited only by the laws of physics, so no problem is insurmountable. Therefore, we can continue to survive and thrive.
David Deutsch is a physicist and philosopher who has written extensively on the intersection of science and philosophy. He received his Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Oxford in 1978.Deutsch has made significant contributions to the development of quantum computing and quantum mechanics. He is also an advocate for the development of AI, particularly in the context of solving complex scientific problems.In terms of AI predictions, Deutsch has argued that AI will be able to solve problems that are currently beyond the reach of human intelligence, particularly in the areas of physics and biology. He has also emphasized the need for AI to be developed responsibly, with a focus on ensuring that AI benefits all members of society.
Keywords: Vernor Vinge, AI, Physics