This AI Prediction was made by David A. McAllester in 2009.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
David McAllester […] believes it’s inevitable that fully automated intelligent machines will be able to design and build smarter, better versions of themselves. […]He estimates a 10 percent chance of that happening within 25 years and a 90 percent chance of it occurring within 75 years.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from David A. McAllester:
Scientists describe that concept as “the intelligence explosion,” or “the Singularity.”
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
David McAllester believes that intelligent machines will be able to design and build smarter versions of themselves in the near future. He estimates a 10 percent chance of this happening within 25 years and a 90 percent chance of it occurring within 75 years. Scientists refer to this concept as “the intelligence explosion” or “the Singularity”.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
Once it happens, machines would become infinitely intelligent, ever-increasing in their capabilities, said McAllester, who earned his doctorate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.“It’s an incredibly dangerous scenario.”
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
Machines could become infinitely intelligent, with ever-increasing capabilities, according to MIT doctorate David McAllester. This could be a dangerous scenario, and McAllester has warned of its potential consequences.
David A. McAllester is a computer scientist and AI researcher who has worked on a variety of topics related to machine learning and natural language processing. He is currently a professor at the Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago and has previously worked at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. McAllester has made significant contributions to the development of algorithms for speech recognition, natural language parsing, and machine learning more broadly. He has also been involved in efforts to develop more robust and interpretable AI systems, particularly in the context of autonomous driving.
Keywords: David McAllester, Intelligence Explosion, Singularity.