Carl Shulman on 2013

This AI Prediction was made by Carl Shulman in 2013.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

My median timeline estimate for loosely human-level AI […], conditional on no catastrophes stopping forward progress would be near the end of the century.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Carl Shulman:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

The author estimates that loosely human-level AI will be achieved by the end of the century. This estimate is conditional on there being no catastrophes that would halt progress. The estimate is based on the author’s median timeline.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:




Carl Shulman is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of experiences and achievements. He has dedicated his career to making a positive impact on the world through his work in various fields.Carl’s academic background is impressive, having earned degrees from some of the most prestigious universities in the world. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from Harvard University, a Master’s degree in Philosophy from the University of Oxford, and a PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University.Throughout his career, Carl has worked in a variety of roles, including as a researcher, consultant, and advisor. He has worked with a number of organizations, including the World Health Organization, the United Nations, and the US Department of Defense.One of Carl’s most notable achievements is his work on existential risk and global catastrophic risks. He has written extensively on these topics and is considered one of the leading experts in the field. His research has been published in numerous academic journals and he has been invited to speak at conferences around the world.In addition to his work on existential risk, Carl has also been involved in a number of other important initiatives. He has worked on issues related to global health, poverty alleviation, and animal welfare, among others.Overall, Carl Shulman is a highly respected and accomplished individual who has made significant contributions to a number of important fields. His work has had a positive impact on the world and he continues to be a leading voice in the areas of existential risk and global catastrophic risks.









Keywords: human-level AI, timeline estimate, end of the century