Bill Joy on 2000

This AI Prediction was made by Bill Joy in 2000.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

By 2030, we are likely to be able to build machines, in quantity, a million times as powerful as the personal computers of today—sufficient to implement the dreams of Kurzweil and Moravec.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Bill Joy:



Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:




The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Given the incredible power of these new technologies, shouldn’t we be asking how we can best coexist with them? And if our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn’t we proceed with great caution?


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

New technologies have immense power, so we should be asking how to best coexist with them. Our own extinction may be a possible outcome of technological development, so we should proceed with caution. We should consider the implications of our technological advancements and how they may affect our future.




Bill Joy is a computer scientist and entrepreneur who co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982. He is best known for his work on the Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) UNIX operating system, the vi text editor, and the Java programming language. He is also a co-founder of Joyent, a cloud computing and hosting company. He was a chief scientist at Sun Microsystems until 2003, and currently serves as a venture partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers.









Keywords: Technologies, Coexist, Extinction