Bill Hibbard on 2016

This AI Prediction was made by Bill Hibbard in 2016.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

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Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Bill Hibbard:

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Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

A requirement for transparency only works if it can be enforced, and research is required on detecting all powerful AI systems. Such systems may be detected by their resource consumption (energy, computer chips, network bandwidth, etc.) and by their need to interact with the world in order to learn. AI itself will be essential for detecting hidden, powerful AI systems.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Enforcing transparency in AI requires research on detecting powerful AI systems. These systems can be identified by their resource consumption and need for interaction with the world. AI will play a crucial role in detecting hidden, powerful AI systems.




Bill Hibbard is a renowned computer scientist and artificial intelligence expert. He has made significant contributions to the field of AI, particularly in the areas of knowledge representation, reasoning, and decision-making. Hibbard received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford University in 1981. He then joined the faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he taught for over a decade. During this time, he also served as a visiting professor at several universities, including Stanford, MIT, and the University of Edinburgh. In the early 1990s, Hibbard joined the research staff at SRI International, where he worked on a variety of AI projects, including the development of intelligent agents for the military. He later joined the faculty at the University of California, San Diego, where he continued his research on AI and served as the director of the university’s Center for Hybrid and Embedded Software Systems. Throughout his career, Hibbard has published numerous papers and articles on AI and related topics. He has also served on the editorial boards of several leading AI journals and has been a frequent speaker at conferences and workshops around the world. In addition to his academic work, Hibbard has also been involved in the development of several commercial AI applications. He co-founded the company ObjectSpace, which developed software tools for distributed computing, and later served as the Chief Scientist at the software company Inference Corporation. Hibbard’s contributions to the field of AI have been widely recognized. He is a Fellow of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) and the American Association for Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), and has received numerous awards for his research, including the AAAI Classic Paper Award and the ACM SIGART Autonomous Agents Research Award.









Keywords: transparency, AI systems, research