Bill Hibbard on 2015

This AI Prediction was made by Bill Hibbard in 2015.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Ray Kurzweil predicted human-level AI by 2029. He has a good track record at technology prediction and I hope he is right: I was born in 1948 so have a good chance of living until 2029. He also predicted the singularity by 2045, which must include the kind of very powerful AI systems discussed in my recent book.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Bill Hibbard:

Not provided


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Ray Kurzweil predicts human-level AI by 2029 and the singularity by 2045. He has a good track record in technology prediction. The singularity must include the powerful AI systems discussed in the author’s recent book.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Since my first paper about future AI in 2001, I have thought that the largest risks from AI are political rather than technical. We have an ethical obligation to educate the public about the future of AI, and an educated public is an essential element of finding a good outcome from AI.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The author believes that the biggest risks associated with AI are political rather than technical. Educating the public about the future of AI is an ethical obligation and is crucial in achieving a positive outcome from AI. An educated public is an essential element in this process.




Bill Hibbard is a renowned computer scientist and artificial intelligence expert. He has made significant contributions to the field of AI, particularly in the areas of knowledge representation, reasoning, and decision-making. Hibbard received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford University in 1981. He then joined the faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he taught for over a decade. During this time, he also served as a visiting professor at several universities, including Stanford, MIT, and the University of Edinburgh. In the early 1990s, Hibbard joined the research staff at SRI International, where he worked on a variety of AI projects, including the development of intelligent agents for the military. He later joined the faculty at the University of California, San Diego, where he continued his research on intelligent agents and multi-agent systems. Hibbard has published numerous papers and articles on AI, and he has served on the editorial boards of several leading AI journals. He is also a fellow of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) and has received several awards for his contributions to the field. In addition to his work in AI, Hibbard is also an accomplished musician and composer. He has released several albums of original music and has performed at venues around the world.









Keywords: human-level AI, singularity, powerful AI systems