This AI Prediction was made by Ben Goertzel in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Ben Goertzel:
A hard AGI takeoff in 5 minutes seems pretty unlikely to me. What I think is far more likely is an Intelligence Explosion manifested as a “semi-hard takeoff” — where an AGI takes a few years to get from slightly subhuman level general intelligence to massively superhuman intelligence
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The likelihood of a hard AGI takeoff in 5 minutes is low. A semi-hard takeoff, where an AGI takes a few years to reach superhuman intelligence, is more probable. The Intelligence Explosion would manifest in this way.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
I suspect transhuman AGIs will do more good than harm, on average over all possible worlds…. I’m not at all sure that “an AGI taking over the world” — with the fully or partly witting support of some group(s) of humans — would be a bad thing, compared to other viable alternatives for humanity’s future
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author believes that transhuman AGIs will have a positive impact overall. They are uncertain whether an AGI taking over the world with human support would be a bad thing compared to other options for humanity’s future. The author suggests that the potential benefits of AGIs should be considered alongside the risks.
Extended Bio of Ben GoertzelBen Goertzel is a renowned artificial intelligence (AI) researcher, entrepreneur, and author. He was born on December 8, 1966, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and grew up in the United States. He holds a Ph.D. in mathematics from Temple University and a Ph.D. in computer science from the University of Western Australia.Goertzel has been a pioneer in the field of AI for over three decades. He has authored more than 20 books and over 100 research papers on various topics related to AI, cognitive science, and complex systems. He is best known for his work on the OpenCog project, which aims to create a human-level AI system using a combination of symbolic and sub-symbolic approaches.Apart from his academic work, Goertzel is also a successful entrepreneur. He has founded several AI companies, including Novamente LLC, Biomind LLC, and SingularityNET. SingularityNET is a decentralized AI marketplace that allows developers to create and monetize AI services.Goertzel is a frequent speaker at conferences and events related to AI and futurism. He has given talks at TEDx, the World Economic Forum, and the United Nations. He is also a regular contributor to popular media outlets such as Wired, Forbes, and The Huffington Post.In addition to his work in AI, Goertzel is also a musician and a science fiction writer. He has released several albums of electronic music and has published several novels and short stories.Overall, Ben Goertzel is a multifaceted individual who has made significant contributions to the field of AI and has inspired many with his vision of a future where humans and machines coexist in harmony.
Keywords: AGI, Intelligence Explosion, transhuman AGIs