Barney Pell on 2007

This AI Prediction was made by Barney Pell in 2007.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

A few years ago, I went and asked a bunch of colleagues in the field of AI to describe that exact scenario, and I said, “When do you think this is going to happen?” There was actually very broad consensus, within a hundred years. Broadly, I would say it was between 30 and 70 years, with the outliers being at a hundred.



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Barney Pell:


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

AI experts were asked when they thought AI would reach a certain level of sophistication. The consensus was that it would take between 30 and 70 years, with some outliers predicting a hundred years. Overall, the experts agreed that it would take at least a few decades for AI to reach the desired level.



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

And, while the problems are very hard, these trends are very indicative of the thought that the Singularity might actually be nearer than people expect.


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

The Singularity, a point in time when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, may be closer than people think. This is suggested by recent trends in technology and artificial intelligence. The problems associated with the Singularity are difficult, but the trends are very indicative of its potential nearness.




Barney Pell is an entrepreneur and AI expert who is the founder of Moon Express, a private space exploration company. Pell has a Ph.D. in Artificial Intelligence from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, and has also studied at NASA Ames Research Center. He has worked on a range of projects, including developing a machine learning system to detect breast cancer and co-founding Powerset, a natural language search engine that was later acquired by Microsoft. Pell is also an advocate for the development of AI and its potential to transform society, and has spoken at events such as the Singularity Summit and TEDx.









Keywords: AI, Singularity, Hundred Years