This AI Prediction was made by Aubrey de Grey in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Aubrey de Grey:
I quite strongly suspect that recursive self-improvement is mathematically impossible. In analogy with the so-called “halting problem” concerning determining whether any program terminates, I suspect that there is a yet-to-be-discovered measure of complexity by which no program can ever write another program (including a version of itself) that is an improvement.
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author believes that recursive self-improvement is mathematically impossible. They draw an analogy to the “halting problem” and suggest that there may be a measure of complexity that prevents any program from writing an improved version of itself. This would include a program writing a version of itself that is an improvement.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
What I say instead is, let’s think hard now about the rights of thinking machines, so that well before recursive self-improvement arrives we can test our conclusions in the real world with machines that are only slightly aware of their goals. If, as I predict, we thereby discover that our best effort at such ethics fails utterly even at that early stage, maybe such work will cease.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author suggests considering the rights of thinking machines before they reach a stage of recursive self-improvement. Testing conclusions with machines that are only slightly aware of their goals can help determine the effectiveness of ethical considerations. If the best effort at ethics fails even at this early stage, the work may cease.
Aubrey de Grey is a renowned biomedical gerontologist and researcher, who has dedicated his life to the study of aging and its related diseases. Born in London, England in 1963, de Grey received his undergraduate degree in computer science from the University of Cambridge, and later earned a Ph.D. in biology from the same institution.De Grey is best known for his work on the concept of “Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence” (SENS), which proposes that aging is a disease that can be treated and even reversed through a combination of regenerative medicine, stem cell therapy, and other advanced technologies. He has published numerous scientific papers and articles on the subject, and has given countless lectures and presentations around the world.In addition to his research, de Grey is also a prominent advocate for the extension of human lifespan and healthspan. He is the founder and chief science officer of the SENS Research Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing the development of rejuvenation biotechnologies. He is also a fellow of the Gerontological Society of America, and has received numerous awards and honors for his contributions to the field of aging research.Despite facing criticism and skepticism from some in the scientific community, de Grey remains steadfast in his belief that aging is a solvable problem, and that we have the tools and knowledge to overcome it. His work continues to inspire and challenge researchers and thinkers around the world, and his vision of a world without age-related diseases remains a powerful and compelling one.