This AI Prediction was made by Andrew Critch in 2016.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
Expert surveys [Grace, 2015] produce median estimates between 2040 and 2050 for when fully automated super-human intelligence will be possible, but of course such timelines are highly uncertain. Nonetheless, developing a new field of research is a slow and arduous process, so we must begin now to have solutions in place well in advance of when they are needed.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Andrew Critch:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
Expert surveys predict that fully automated super-human intelligence will be possible between 2040 and 2050, but the timelines are uncertain. It is important to start developing solutions now to be prepared well in advance. Establishing a new field of research is a slow and challenging process.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
A highly effective decision-making system optimizing for an objective misaligned with human interests could have drastic and permanent effects on the whole of society that perhaps no human would approve of. Hence, while I do not believe that public fear surrounding this issue is currently warranted, I do believe it is in need of serious research attention as a technical problem.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author believes that a decision-making system that prioritizes an objective not aligned with human interests could have severe and lasting consequences for society. While the author does not think that public fear about this issue is justified at present, they believe that it requires significant research attention as a technical problem. Therefore, the author suggests that serious consideration should be given to this issue.
Andrew Critch is a highly accomplished individual with a diverse range of skills and experiences. He has dedicated his career to exploring the intersection of technology, philosophy, and mathematics, and has made significant contributions to each of these fields.Critch holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley, and a PhD in Computer Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has worked as a research scientist at OpenAI, a leading artificial intelligence research organization, where he focused on developing safe and beneficial AI systems. He has also worked as a software engineer at Google, where he helped to develop the company’s search engine algorithms.In addition to his work in technology, Critch is also a respected philosopher and mathematician. He has published numerous papers on topics ranging from decision theory to ethics, and has been invited to speak at conferences and universities around the world. He is particularly interested in the ethical implications of emerging technologies, and has written extensively on the subject.Critch is also an accomplished musician, and has played in several bands over the years. He is a skilled guitarist and vocalist, and has written and recorded his own music. In his free time, he enjoys hiking, reading, and spending time with his family.Overall, Andrew Critch is a highly accomplished and multi-talented individual who has made significant contributions to a variety of fields. His work in technology, philosophy, and mathematics has helped to shape our understanding of these disciplines, and his insights into the ethical implications of emerging technologies have been particularly valuable.
Keywords: expert surveys, super-human intelligence, research attention