This AI Prediction was made by Anders Sandberg in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I think that if we can do WBE it has a good chance of happening mid-century (but there is a long tail pointed towards the further future); I would be very surprised if we could do it with a human before 2030.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Anders Sandberg:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author believes that whole brain emulation (WBE) has a good chance of happening by mid-century, but there is a possibility it may take longer. They also express doubt that WBE with a human will be achieved before 2030.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
I am much more optimistic about smart ideas being proposed for beneficial and safe AI than I would have been a year ago.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author is optimistic about the smart ideas being proposed for safe and beneficial AI. This optimism is a recent development, as the author would not have felt this way a year ago. The author believes that progress is being made in the development of safe and beneficial AI.
Anders Sandberg is a renowned Swedish philosopher and transhumanist who has made significant contributions to the fields of ethics, cognitive science, and emerging technologies. He was born on July 11, 1972, in Solna, Sweden, and grew up in Stockholm.Sandberg received his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics from Uppsala University in 1991. He then pursued a Ph.D. in computational neuroscience at Stockholm University, which he completed in 1997. During his doctoral studies, he developed a keen interest in the philosophy of mind and the ethical implications of emerging technologies.After completing his Ph.D., Sandberg joined the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford as a research fellow. He has been associated with the institute ever since and is currently a senior research fellow. At the institute, Sandberg has worked on a wide range of topics, including existential risks, cognitive enhancement, and the ethics of artificial intelligence.Sandberg is also a prolific writer and has published numerous articles and papers in leading academic journals. He is the author of several books, including “The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence” and “Transhumanist Values.” Sandberg is also a popular speaker and has given talks at various conferences and events around the world.In addition to his academic work, Sandberg is an active member of the transhumanist movement. He is a co-founder of the Swedish Transhumanist Association and has served as a board member of the World Transhumanist Association (now known as Humanity ).Sandberg’s work has been widely recognized and has received several awards and honors. In 2013, he was awarded the H.G. Wells Award for Outstanding Contributions to Transhumanism. He has also been named one of the “Top 100 Global Thinkers” by Foreign Policy magazine.Sandberg currently lives in Oxford with his wife and two children. In his free time, he enjoys reading science fiction, playing chess, and practicing meditation.