This AI Prediction was made by Anders Sandberg in 2014.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
I think body-switching will require brain emulation, which will take a few decades to develop.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Anders Sandberg:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The author believes that body-switching will necessitate the development of brain emulation technology. This technology is expected to take several decades to develop.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
If a strong takeoff scenario is likely, then the goal would be “only” to make sure that the winning project got the friendly design. If AI development is more broad, then there would likely be both safe and unsafe AI around and the key problem would be to make sure the policing of the AIs (maybe done by AI) is good enough to keep things safe enough. […]I am pretty optimistic about humanity’s chances (I would give a 75% chance that we go off and do great things).
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The goal in a strong takeoff scenario would be to ensure the winning project has a friendly design. In a more broad AI development scenario, the key problem would be policing the AIs to keep things safe. The author is optimistic about humanity’s chances, giving a 75% chance that we will do great things.
Anders Sandberg is a renowned Swedish philosopher and transhumanist who has made significant contributions to the fields of ethics, cognitive science, and emerging technologies. He was born on July 11, 1972, in Solna, Sweden, and grew up in Stockholm.Sandberg received his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics from Uppsala University in 1991. He then pursued a Ph.D. in computational neuroscience at Stockholm University, which he completed in 1997. During his doctoral studies, he developed a keen interest in the philosophy of mind and the ethical implications of emerging technologies.After completing his Ph.D., Sandberg joined the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford as a research fellow. He has been associated with the institute ever since and is currently a senior research fellow. At the institute, Sandberg has worked on a wide range of topics, including existential risks, cognitive enhancement, and the ethics of artificial intelligence.Sandberg is also a prolific writer and has published numerous articles and papers in leading academic journals. He is the author of several books, including “The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence” and “Transhumanist Values.” Sandberg is also a popular speaker and has given talks at various conferences and events around the world.In addition to his academic work, Sandberg is an active member of the transhumanist movement. He is a co-founder of the Swedish Transhumanist Association and has served as a board member of the World Transhumanist Association (now known as Humanity ).Sandberg’s work has been widely recognized and has received several awards and honors. In 2013, he was awarded the H.G. Wells Award for Outstanding Contributions to Transhumanism. He has also been named one of the “Top 100 Global Thinkers” by Foreign Policy magazine.Sandberg currently lives in Oxford with his wife and two children. In his free time, he enjoys reading science fiction, playing chess, and practicing meditation.