This AI Prediction was made by Alex “Sandy” Pentland in 2015.
Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)
The Global Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has already been born. Its eyes and ears are the digital devices all around us: credit cards, land use satellites, cell phones, and of course the pecking of billions of people using the Web. Its central brain is rather like a worm at the moment: nodes that combine some sensors and some effectors, but the whole is far from what you would call a coordinated intelligence.
Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from Alex “Sandy” Pentland:
Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:
The Global Artificial Intelligence (GAI) is already present and uses digital devices such as credit cards, satellites, cell phones, and the internet to gather information. However, its central brain is not yet fully coordinated and resembles a worm with nodes that combine sensors and effectors. The GAI is not yet a fully developed coordinated intelligence.
The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:
First, without an effective GAI achieving an honorable quality of life for all of humanity seems unlikely. To vote against developing a GAI is to vote for a more violent, sick world. Second, the danger of a GAI comes from concentration of power. We must figure out how to build broadly democratic systems that include both humans and computer intelligences. In my opinion, it is critical that we start building and testing GAIs that both solve humanity’s existential problems and which ensure equality of control and access. Otherwise we may be doomed to a future full of environmental disasters, wars, and needless suffering.
Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:
The author argues that not developing an effective GAI would lead to a violent and sick world. However, the danger of a GAI lies in the concentration of power, and it is important to build democratic systems that include both humans and computer intelligences. The author believes that building and testing GAIs that solve humanity’s problems and ensure equality of control and access is critical to avoid a future full of disasters, wars, and suffering.
Alex “Sandy” Pentland is a renowned computer scientist and entrepreneur who has made significant contributions to the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and social computing. He is currently a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he directs the Human Dynamics Group and the MIT Media Lab Entrepreneurship Program.Pentland received his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1982 and has since held various academic positions at MIT, including the Toshiba Professor of Media Arts and Sciences. He has also served as a visiting professor at several universities, including Stanford, Harvard, and the University of California, Berkeley.Pentland’s research focuses on understanding human behavior through the analysis of large-scale data sets. He has developed several influential algorithms and models that have been applied in various fields, including finance, healthcare, and transportation. His work has also led to the creation of several successful startups, including Cogito Corporation, which uses machine learning to improve customer service interactions.In addition to his academic and entrepreneurial pursuits, Pentland is a sought-after speaker and author. He has published several books, including “Honest Signals: How They Shape Our World” and “Social Physics: How Good Ideas Spread – The Lessons from a New Science.” He has also been recognized with numerous awards, including the IEEE Millennium Medal, the McKinsey Award, and the DARPA Network Challenge Prize.Overall, Pentland’s work has had a significant impact on the fields of computer science and social science, and his contributions continue to shape our understanding of human behavior and the role of technology in society.
Keywords: Global Artificial Intelligence, coordination, democracy