AGI-09 Twenty-one people participated in the study on 2011

This AI Prediction was made by AGI-09 Twenty-one people participated in the study in 2011.

Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Median estimates for each AGI milestone at each level of confidence.[Turing Test10% — 202050% — 204090% — 2075]

Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from AGI-09 Twenty-one people participated in the study:

[Super Human10% — 202550% — 204590% — 2100]

Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Estimates for achieving a Turing Test level of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) range from 2020 to 2075, with a 50% chance of success by 2040. Estimates for achieving a Super Human level of AGI range from 2025 to 2100, with a 50% chance of success by 2045. These estimates are based on median estimates for each AGI milestone at each level of confidence.

The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

Five experts estimated a less than 20% chance of a negative outcome, regardless of the development scenario. Four experts estimated a greater than 60% chance of a negative outcome, regardless of the development scenario. Only four experts gave the same estimate for all three development scenarios. Finally, several experts were more concerned about the risk from AGI itself, whereas others were more concerned that AGI could be misused by humans who controlled it

Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Experts estimated a less than 20% chance of a negative outcome, and a greater than 60% chance of a negative outcome, regardless of the development scenario. Four experts gave the same estimate for all three development scenarios. Some experts were more concerned about the risk from AGI itself, while others were more concerned about misuse by humans.

About:

The AGI-09 conference was a scientific conference focused on the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). The conference was held in Washington D.C. in March 2009 and brought together researchers, academics, and industry professionals from around the world to discuss the latest developments in the field of AGI.AGI is a branch of AI that aims to create intelligent systems that are capable of performing any intellectual task that a human being can do. Unlike narrow AI systems, which are designed to perform specific tasks, AGI systems are intended to be capable of learning and adapting to new situations, making decisions, and reasoning about complex problems.The AGI-09 conference featured a wide range of presentations, workshops, and panel discussions on topics related to AGI, including machine learning, cognitive architectures, natural language processing, and ethics. Some of the keynote speakers at the conference included Ben Goertzel, a leading AGI researcher and founder of the OpenCog Foundation, and Pei Wang, a cognitive scientist and author of the book “Rigid Flexibility: The Logic of Intelligence.”Overall, the AGI-09 conference provided a valuable forum for researchers and industry professionals to share their ideas and insights on the development of AGI, and to discuss the potential implications of this technology for society as a whole. The conference helped to raise awareness of the importance of AGI research and spurred further advances in this rapidly-evolving field.