35 participants of Winter Intelligence Conference 2011 on 2011

This AI Prediction was made by 35 participants of Winter Intelligence Conference 2011 in 2011.


Predicted time for AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:

(Hover for explanation)Types of advanced artificial intelligence: AGI (AI that can perform many tasks at a human-level), HLMI (more advanced AI that surpasses human intelligence in specific areas), and Transformative AI (AI that could significantly impact society and the world)

Of the 35 responses, two implied the impossibility of ever achieving HLMI and 3 implied that the eventual probability of HLMI ever being achieved is between 50% and 90%. The remaining responses estimated the timing as follows:[The median estimate of when there will be 10% chance of HLMI was 2028The median estimate of when there will be 50% chance of HLMI was 2050The median estimate of when there will be 90% chance of HLMI was 2150]



Opinion about the Intelligence Explosion from 35 participants of Winter Intelligence Conference 2011:


Flycer’s explanation for better understanding:

Not provided



The future of humanity with AGI / HLMI / transformative AI:


Flycer’s Secondary Explanation:

Not provided




The Winter Intelligence Conference 2011 was an invitation-only conference that was held in January 2011 at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) in Oxford, England. The conference was focused on the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential implications for society and humanity as a whole.The conference brought together a diverse group of experts from a range of fields, including AI researchers, philosophers, cognitive scientists, and futurists. The goal of the conference was to facilitate a dialogue between these different perspectives and to explore the potential benefits and risks of advanced AI systems.Some of the topics discussed at the conference included the feasibility of building artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems, the implications of advanced AI for the labor market and economic inequality, and the ethical considerations surrounding the development of AI.The Winter Intelligence Conference 2011 was notable for its interdisciplinary approach and its focus on the long-term implications of AI. The conference helped to spur further discussion and research on the topic of AI and its potential impact on society, and it remains an important event in the history of AI research and scholarship.






Source: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2011-1.pdf