AI Predictions. Historic predictions from 1940's to 2010
Flycer's review of AI Predictions
Reputable AI scientists often make predictions about the future of AI in areas such as automation, healthcare, and transportation. Their predictions can help us understand the potential impact of AI on society and how we can prepare for it.
However, it’s important to keep in mind that AI predictions are not always accurate and can be influenced by biases and assumptions. How accurate were those predicitions? Are they on track to be fulfilled?.
Prediction by:
- [Experts from] National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, The Seventh Technology Foresight. Future Technology in Japan toward the Year 2030, Science and Technology Foresight Centre, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Tokyo on 2001
- [Nick] Bostrom, Katja [Grace ?], Toby [Ord ?], [Nick] Beckstead, Anders [Sandberg ?], Stuart [Armstrong ?], Jaan [Tallinn ?], Owen [Cotton-Barratt ?] on 2014
- {forecaster} on {forecaster_date}
- 35 participants of Winter Intelligence Conference 2011 on 2011
- 67 British and American computer scientists working in, or close to, the machine intelligence field on 1972
- 888 participants — friends of Bruce Klein on 2007
- A multidisciplinary study group, quoted by J. C. R. Licklider on 1960
- Abram Demski on 2012
- Adam D'Angelo on 2015
- AGI-09 Twenty-one people participated in the study on 2011
- AGI-11 Conference60 participants on 2011
- Alan Bundy on 2012
- Alan Hajek on 2011
- Alan Turing on 1951
- Alan Turing on 1951
- Alessio Plebe and Pietro Perconti on 2013
- Alex "Sandy" Pentland on 2015
- Alex Blainey on 2007
- Alex Kozak/X on 2016
- Alexander Kruel on 2011
- Alexander Wissner-Gross on 2015
- Alfred Nordmann on 2008
- Alice C. Parker on 2007
- all researchers who published at the 2015 NIPS and ICML conferences[…]A total of 352 researchers responded to our survey invitation (21% of the 1634 authors we contacted) on 2016
- Amir Banifatemi/ XPRIZE Foundation on 2016
- Amnon H. Eden, Eric Steinhart, David Pearce and James H. Moor on 2013
- Anders Sandberg on 2014
- Anders Sandberg on 2015
- Andrew Clifford on 2007
- Andrew Critch on 2015
- Andrew Critch on 2016
- Andrew Davison on 2012
- Andrew Kowalski on 2007
- Andrew Snyder-Beattie on 2014
- Andy Clark on 2015
- Anne Jenkins on 2003
- Anthony Aguirre on 2015
- Anthony Berglas on 2012
- Antonio López Peláez, Dimitris Kyriakou on 2008
- Antony Garrett Lisi on 2015
- Arthur Clarke on 1962
- Arthur Clarke on 2001
- Aubrey de Grey on 2015
- Barney Pell on 2007
- Barry Dainton on 2012
- Bart Kosko on 2015
- Bas Steunebrink on 2013
- Ben Goertzel on 2012
- Ben Goertzel on 2014
- Benja Fallenstein on 2015
- Bill Gates on 2015
- Bill Hibbard on 2015
- Bill Hibbard on 2016
- Bill Joy on 2000
- Blay Whitby on 2007
- Bob Blum on 2007
- Bobby D. Bryant on 2007
- Brad Love on 2007
- Brandon Rohrer, Tim Finin, Pat Hayes on 2012
- Brian Wang on 2007
- Carl Shulman on 2013
- Carlo Rovelli on 2015
- Charles Smith on 2012
- Charlie Stross on 2011
- Chip Walter on 2007
- Chris DiBona on 2015
- Christof Koch on 2014
- Christopher J. Anderson on 2015
- Claude Shannon on 1987
- Clifford Pickover on 2015
- Clive Sinclair on 2014
- Colin Allen on 2011
- Cory Morgenstein on 2007
- Craig Silverstein on 2009
- D. Scott Phoenix on 2015
- Damien Broderick on 2012
- Dani Eder on 1994
- Daniel Burfoot on 2011
- Daniel C. Dennett on 2015
- David A. McAllester on 2009
- David C. Noelle on 2007
- David Chalmers on 2010
- David Dalrymple on 2013
- David Deutsch on 2007
- David Deutsch on 2011
- David Krueger on 2014
- David L. Waltz on 1988
- David McAllester on 2015
- David Pearce on 2015
- Dean S Horak on 2015
- Deborah Johnson on 2016
- Demis Hassabis, Shane Legg, Mustafa Suleyman on 2015
- Diana Spears on 2014
- Dick Pelletier on 2007
- Dileep George on 2015
- Dirk Helbing on 2015
- Don Perlis on 2007
- Donald D. Hoffman on 2015
- Donald Michie on 1970
- Douglas Hofstadter on 2008
- Drew McDermott on 2012
- Dylan Evans on 2015
- Edward Feigenbaum on 2015
- Edward Fredkin on 1979
- Elon Musk on 2014
- Elon Musk on 2015
- Emma Peck/ Engine on 2016
- Eric Hahn on 2008
- Eric Horvitz on 2011
- Eric J. Chaisson on 2012
- Ernest Davis on 2014
- Fallenstein and Mennen on 2013
- FM-2030 on 1995
- Francesca Rossi on 2014
- Francis Heylighen on 2007
- Francis Heylighen on 2012
- Frank Tipler on 2015
- Frank Wilczek on 2015
- Freeman Dyson on 2015
- Gary Cottrell on 2007
- Gary Klein on 2015
- Gary Miller on 2007
- Geert-Jan Kruijff on 2007
- Geoffrey Hinton on 2015
- George Church on 2015
- George Dvorsky on 2015
- George Dyson on 2014
- George Dyson on 2015
- Gerald Smallberg on 2015
- Global Catastrophic Risk Conference on 2008
- Gordon Bell on 2008
- Gordon E. Moore on 2008
- Gordon Irlam on 2016
- Government Relations Committee of the AAAI Executive Council, in coordination with the President of AAAI on 2016
- Graham Gilmer/ Booz Allen Hamilton on 2016
- Gray Scott on 2015
- Greg Bloom on 2007
- Gregory Wonderwheel on 2007
- Gwern Branwen on 2010
- Gwern Branwen on 2014
- Hadayat Seddiqi on 2014
- Hans Moravec on 1995
- Hans Moravec on 2008
- Hansjoerg Neth on 2007
- Harvey Newstrom on 2007
- Henry Markram on 2009
- Herbert Alexander Simon on 1965
- Hugo de Garis on 2005
- I. J. Good on 1965
- I. J. Good on 2013
- Ian Goodfellow, OpenAI colleagues and Jack Clark. on 2016
- Iddo Genuth on 2007
- Irving John Good on 1970
- Issac Trotts on 2007
- J Storrs Hall on 2008
- J. Storrs Hall on 2007
- Jack Schwartz on 1987
- Jacob Gadikian on 2007
- Jacob Steinhardt on 2015
- James Anderson on 2007
- James S. Berry on 2007
- Jandyre Garcia on 2015
- Jaron Lanier on 2014
- Jasen Murray on 2011
- Jay Fox on 2007
- Jay Swartz on 2014
- Jean-Philippe Drecourt on 2007
- Jed McCaleb on 2015
- Jeff Hawkins on 2015
- Jesse Prinz on 2012
- Jessica L. Tracy & Kristin Laurin on 2015
- Jessica Taylor on 2016
- Jie Liu on 2007
- Jim Fruchterman on 2008
- JoEllen Lukavec Koester on 2016
- John C. Mather on 2015
- John Casti on 2008
- John E. Laird on 2012
- John Fox on 2014
- John Horgan on 2008
- John Markoff on 2015
- John McCarthy on 1977
- John Naughton on 2015
- John Pate on 2007
- John R. Searle on 2014
- John Smart on 2003
- John Tooby on 2015
- John von Neumann on 1949
- John von Neumann on 1955
- John von Neumann on 1958
- Joichi Ito on 2015
- Jon Kleinberg, Sendhil Mullainathan on 2015
- Jordan S. Sparks on 2007
- Joscha Bach on 2015
- Joshua Bongard on 2015
- Julius Lukasiewicz on 1974
- Jürgen Schmidhuber on 2011
- Justin Rattner on 2008
- Justin Sher on 2007
- Kai Krause on 2014
- Kai Krause on 2015
- Kaj Sotala on 2011
- Karl F. MacDorman on 2007
- Karl Sackett on 2007
- Kate Alhola on 2015
- Katja Grace on 2009
- Keefe Roedersheimer on 2011
- Kenneth Blum on 2016
- Kenneth D. Forbus on 2010
- Kentaro Toyama on 2016
- Kevin Gluck on 2007
- Kevin Gold on 2007
- Kevin Warwick on 1997
- Kevin Warwick on 2007
- Kristinn R. Thorisson on 2012
- Larry Wasserman on 2012
- Lawrence M. Krauss on 2015
- Lee Felsenstein on 2007
- Lee Smolin on 2014
- Leo M. Chalupa on 2015
- Leo Pape, Donald Loveland on 2012
- Leslie Smith on 2007
- Lisa Hayes/ Center for Technology & Democracy on 2016
- Luke Muehlhauser on 2013
- Luke Muehlhauser on 2014
- Manuel Beltran on 2016
- Marc Andreessen on 2009
- Marc S. Lewis on 2007
- Marcus Hutter on 2012
- Marek Rosa on 2015
- Mark Changizi on 2012
- Mark McAllister on 2007
- Mark Pagel on 2015
- Marti Hearst on 2015
- Martin Rees on 2015
- Marvin Minsky on 1967
- Marvin Minsky on 2015
- Masahiko Tsukamoto on 2015
- Masakazu Kobayashi on 2015
- Matt Mahoney on 2013
- Matt Mahoney on 2015
- Matthew D. Lieberman on 2015
- Matthew Lockner on 2007
- Max More on 2002
- Max Tegmark on 2014
- Max Tegmark on 2015
- Melanie Swan on 2015
- Michael Anissimov on 2013
- Michael Cooper on 2007
- Michael G. Dyer, John Tromp, Kevin Korb, Peter Gacs, Eray Ozkural, Laurent Orseau, Richard Loosemore, Monica Anderson on 2012
- Michael H Cohen on 2015
- Michael Littman on 2011
- Michael Shermer on 2014
- Michael Shermer on 2015
- Michael Vassar on 2015
- Mike Dougherty on 2007
- Mike Sellers on 2014
- Monica Lopez-Gonzalez on 2016
- Moshe Y. Vardi on 2012
- Murray Shanahan on 2015
- Mustafa Suleyman on 2015
- Nate Soares on 2015
- Nate Soares on 2016
- Nathan Myhrvold on 2014
- Neil Gershenfeld on 2014
- Neil Gershenfeld on 2015
- Neil Jacobstein on 2007
- Neil Lawrence on 2016
- Nicholas A. Christakis on 2015
- Nicholas G. Carr on 2015
- Nick Bostrom on 2014
- Nick Bostrom/ Future of Humanity Institute on 2016
- Niels Taatgen on 2007
- Nils John Nilsson, Peter J. Bentley, David Alan, Plaisted, Hector Levesque on 2012
- Nils Nilsson on 2007
- Noah Goodman on 2007
- Norbert Wiener on 1960
- Noriko Arai on 2015
- Oren Etzioni on 2015
- Osamu Sakura on 2015
- Pamela McCorduck on 2014
- Pamela McCorduck on 2015
- Participants of the conference on “Philosophy and Theory of AI” [Response rates: 43 out of 88]Participants of the conferences AGI 12 and AGI Impacts 2012Response rates: 72 out of 111]Members of the Greek Association for Artificial IntelligenceResponse rates: 26 out of 250The 100 ‘Top authors in artificial intelligence’ by ‘citation’ in ‘all years’ according to Microsoft Academic SearchResponse rates: 29 out of 100Total:310 out of 549 on 2012/2013
- Paul Allen on 2011
- Paul Davies on 2015
- Paul Saffo on 2015
- Pei Wang, J. Storrs Hall, Paul Cohen on 2012
- Pentti Haikonen on 2007
- Peter Diamandis on 2014
- Peter J. Bentley on 2007
- Peter McCluskey on 2014
- Peter Norvig on 2015
- Peter Rothman on 2015
- Peter Thiel on 2011
- PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEExecutive Office of the President National Science and Technology Council Committee on Technology on 2016
- Quentin Hardy on 2015
- Rakesh Kapoor on 2003
- Ramez Naam on 2010
- Ramez Naam on 2014
- Randal A. Koene, AIDEUS (Alexey Potapov) on 2012
- Raphael Bousso on 2015
- Ray J. Solomonoff on 1985
- Ray Kurzweil on 2002
- Reiko Kanda on 2015
- Rich Sutton on 2016
- Richard Carrier on 2011
- Richard H. Thaler on 2015
- Richard Korf on 2007
- Richard L Coren on 1998
- Richard Leis on 2007
- Richard Leis, Jr. on 2007
- Richard Loosemore on 2015
- Richard Loosemore on 2015
- Rob Bensinger on 2013
- Robert Bradbury on 2007
- Robert Provine on 2014
- Robert Wensman on 2007
- Rodney Brooks on 2008
- Roger Highfield on 2015
- Roger Schank on 2015
- Roland Pihlakas on 2007
- Rolf Dobelli on 2015
- Rollo Carpenter on 2006
- Roman Yampolskiy on 2013
- Ron Chrisley on 2007
- Ross Anderson on 2015
- Ryan Carey on 2014
- Ryan Hagemann/ Niskanen Center on 2016
- S. Abbas Raza on 2015
- Sam Altman on 2015
- Sam Harris on 2015
- Samantha Atkins on 2015
- Samuel Arbesman on 2015
- Satyajit Das on 2015
- Scott Alexander on 2015
- Scott Brown on 2007
- Scott Draves on 2015
- Sean Carroll on 2015
- Sean Legassick/ DeepMind on 2016
- Selmer Bringsjord on 2007
- Selmer Bringsjord, Alexander Bringsjord, Paul Bello on 2012
- Sendhil Mullainathan on 2014
- Seth Lloyd on 2015
- Shimon Whiteson on 2015
- Stan Franklin on 2011
- Stefan Pernar on 2015
- Stephen Hawking on 2016
- Stephen Oman on 2015
- Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change on 2006
- Steve Fuller on 2003
- Steve Fuller on 2015
- Steve Omohundro on 2011
- Steve Omohundro on 2011
- Steve Omohundro on 2015
- Steve Potter on 2015
- Stuart A. Kauffman on 2015
- Stuart Russell on 2014
- Stuart Russell on 2015
- Susan Blackmore on 2015
- T.J. Rodgers on 2008
- Terrence J. Sejnowski on 2015
- Terry Bollinger on 2016
- Terry Deacon on 2007
- The 2006 AI@50conference on 2006
- Thomas G Dietterich on 2015
- Thomas G. Dietterich and Eric J. Horvitz on 2015
- Thomas Hills on 2007
- Thore Husfeldt on 2015
- Tim Day/ The Center for Advanced Technology and Innovation at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on 2016
- Tim Tyler on 2008
- Tim Tyler on 2009
- Tim Tyler on 2009
- Timo Hannay on 2015
- Timothy Gowers on 2013
- Tom Dietterich on 2014
- Tom Mitchell on 2014
- Tom Shields on 2007
- Tomaso Poggio on 2015
- Travis McCracken on 2007
- Tuna Oezer on 2016
- Twenty-five European top level scientists […]. Among the hand-selected participants were physicians, psychiatric, cognitive and social scientists, philosophers, artists, and representatives of stakeholder organizations on 2005
- Valentin Turchin on 1989
- Vernor Vinge on 2002
- Victoria Krakovna on 2015
- Victoria Krakovna on 2016
- Vladimir Nesov on 2009
- Vladislav Daniel Veksler on 2007
- W. S. McCulloch on 1952
- W. S. McCulloch on 1952
- W. Tecumseh Fitch on 2015
- Warren Stringer on 2007
- Wayne Radinsky on 2007
- Wei Dai on 2012
- Willard Wells on 2009
- William Hertling on 2014
- William Uther on 2012
- Yann LeCun on 2015
- Yoseph Bar-Cohen, David Hanson on 2009
- Yoshua Bengio on 2015